AFU can make a significant breakthrough in the south – ISW

Ukrainian defenders will be able to achieve a significant operational breakthrough on the southern front line in the course of counteroffensive actions if several key assumptions of analysts about the capabilities of the Armed Forces in this area, the state of the occupiers' defense lines, and more are confirmed.

This was stated by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War in a recent report.

According to the experts, a significant success of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the southern direction will be more likely if

• Russian forces do not have the necessary reserves or combat power to maintain Russian defenses in the western Zaporizhia region;

• Ukrainian forces retain enough combat power to continue pushing after exhausting Russian combat power; and

• Russian defensive positions behind the current battle area are not as heavily mined or well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian forces have breached.

The analysts note that this hypothesis is invalid if any of these assumptions are incorrect, but add that "there are indicators that these assumptions remain valid as of this writing".

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 25/09/2023