Wagner Group may become a serious threat again – ISW

Wagner Group may become subordinate to the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) or the Russian Defense Ministry and again pose a serious threat to the Ukrainian military. The mercenaries may even be led by the son of the former leader Yevhen Prygozhyn.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

Analysts note that the status of Wagner is still unclear, as the mercenaries are scattered in several different countries. However, on September 29, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin met with the former commander of Wagner and current employee of the Russian Defense Ministry, Andrei Trochev, and said that he would be involved in the formation of new volunteer units that perform combat missions, primarily in Ukraine.

Some representatives of Wagner reacted negatively to this statement and began to claim that Prigozhin's place should be taken by his 25-year-old son Pavel. One of the channels reported that he was allegedly negotiating with the Rosgvardia to bring the mercenaries under their command.

"The prominent Wagner-affiliated source reported that Wagner fighters would not have to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense and that the Wagner Group would retain its name, symbols, ideology, commanders, management, and existing standard operating principles," analysts write.

The analysts said that based on this and other data, they have revised their assessment and now believe that Wagner Group could potentially become a serious threat again.

"The initial assessment (that Wagner has lost effectiveness - ed.) will be invalidated if the Wagner Group reestablishes itself as a coherent and large formation under the Russian government with effective centralized leadership," ISW noted.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 02/10/2023