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Wagner may lose most of their mercenary convicts in the coming weeks

Mar 22, 2023

Russian prisoners who have become mercenaries of the Wagner PMC and are fighting as part of the occupation forces in Ukraine, may leave the ranks of the group in the coming weeks after the end of their six-month contracts.

It is expected that the Wagner Group will thus lose most of the convicts recruited.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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Experts quote the assessment of the British Defense Ministry, according to which thousands of Wagner convicts who were recruited during fall 2022 will be pardoned and released, given that Wagner appears to be sticking to its promise of releasing convicts after six months of service.

The British Defense Ministry forecasted that the exodus of convict forces would worsen Wagner personnel shortages as the Kremlin has also blocked Wagner from recruiting additional prisoners.

Thus, on January 27, the Kremlin issued a statement confirming that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is issuing preemptive pardons to convicts who are involved in the war against Ukraine.

"The Kremlin’s announcement aligns with the ISW-established timeline of Putin’s decision to completely distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin following the fall of Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on January 12–13," the publication said.

Analysts believe that the Kremlin probably deliberately authorized the release of preemptive pardons to "encourage more Wagner prisoners to leave after their contracts expire to further undermine Wagner's strength."

"Prigozhin has developed a brand consistently mocking the Russian MoD for its disregard for the troops’ wellbeing and is unlikely to anger a convict force by retaining them on the frontlines past the expiration of their contracts," the report says.
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Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 22/03/2022

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