AFU withdrawal from Avdiivka has not helped rapid advance of Russians

Russian forces did not make relatively rapid tactical gains west of Ocheretyne, Solovyov, Berdychiv, and Semenivka after Ukrainian forces withdrew from tactical positions in the area. This suggests that the AFU retain the ability to slow down Russia's advance.

This is reported with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The next line of defense in the area is located at a certain distance from the line that the occupiers have been attacking since the capture of Avdiivka in mid-February.

The Russian advance is likely to be rapid only if Ukrainian forces do not try to hold their ground in the fields.

The arrival of brigades that have regained combat capability, which was announced the day before by the Chief Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, will likely allow Ukrainian forces to slow down Russia's tactical successes and possibly stabilize the front, the report says.

Inferior to the invaders in terms of ammunition and manpower, Ukrainian defenders were able to withstand more than one division of the Russian Armed Forces.

The Institute believes that the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements and additional equipment will force the Russian command to either recognize that wider or deeper penetration is unlikely in the near future or send additional reserves to the area to continue to achieve tactical success.

At the same time, sending additional reserves to this area would mean that the Russians risk not succeeding in the Chasiv Yar area or in preparing for a large-scale summer offensive.

"Russian forces will likely have to replenish and reinforce attacking units and decrease the tempo of offensive operations west of Avdiivka if they do not commit additional reserves, which would likely constrain Russia’s ability to make additional rapid tactical advances in the area," the report says.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 29/04/2024