The mobilization announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin will not affect the course of the war, according to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The analysts say the problems that undermine Putin’s efforts to mobilize the Russians are so deep and fundamental that he will not be able to solve them in the coming months, or perhaps years.
“This mobilization will not affect the course of the conflict in 2022 and may not have a very dramatic impact on Russia’s ability to sustain its current level of effort into 2023,” the ISW report says.
The process will be ugly, the quality of the reservists poor, and their motivation to fight likely even worse. At the same time, it notes that the systems are sufficiently in place to allow military commissars and other Russian officials to find people and send them to training units and thence to war.
Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 26/09/2022