Conflicts that could divert US attention to Ukraine

Conflicts that could distract US attention from Ukraine

Geographical mapping of conflicts:

• China-Taiwan

• Middle East

• Venezuela-Guyana

• Kosovo

• African regional conflicts

China-Taiwan

This conflict is not one of recent years but ongoing from 1895 onwards when the Japanese took control of the Island of Taiwan and its surrounding Islands, until the surrender of Japan in 1945 as well as China stepping in in 1949.

These days, the majority of Taiwanese oppose to China. In 2023, China flexed muscle where allied nations supported Taiwan. And allied forces flexed muscle. Allied forces have a serious presence in the South China sea and the Pacific. In a conflict China would find itself in a clash with not only the US, but Japan, South Korea, Australia. It is a prospect that keeps China at bay at the moment.

China has a continues look at Russians in Ukraine and witnessed Russia’s staggering losses. Which is not inviting and appealing to China at this time. Besides the fact that China has no battle-hardened forces. The US declined F16” s to Ukraine. Uncle Joe needs assets when China has a go. Taiwan might be a military dwarf. But 15 million Taiwanese will fight China like Ukraine fights Russians.

I do feel Xi is counting his buttons first before such an attempt. His economy at the same token will be affected in such a way that their global trade is reduced to zero. All its foreign investments considered lost at the same token. When does it clash? No one really knows. As long as allied powers keep their support? It won’t be tomorrow. And if it did? Not only China has a serious problem. It is more likely to see China moving in East Russia. Once Putin has exhausted its resources, and it is close to defeat! No doubt that China will take a huge chunk of East Russia if it sees the opportunity. Without being bothered by the world in first instance.

Middle East

The visual driving forces and actors here are Iran with Russian/Syrian support. With Russian support declining. Iran itself now has to support Russia. Iran has local outlets by Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi’s and some other terrorist groups.

Israel is not known for its lashing out by invading neighbouring countries. It does however forcefully react when it is attacked. And neighbouring countries are very well aware of Israel’s military power. Iran might have a powerful military. But by no means able to attack Israel itself.

Iran therefore uses proxies. It did so after the Shah of Persia was removed from power by the ayatollahs in 1979 when Iran became a Muslim state. Hamas and Hezbollah are not powerful enough to wage a war. They are able to commit atrocities like October 7th 2023. Hezbollah has kept a back seat. It has a supply of rockets and mortars. Afraid to engage Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). It will wipe out Hezbollah’s presence in South Lebanon. To prevent an escalation in South Lebanon and other places the US moved assets to the region. To be able to strike at will, which it did in response to attacks on US bases in the region.

Personally, I don’t think the US will confront Iran in a war with in the background hollow and empty threats. Israel will be capable enough of dealing with Iran, as it did successfully in the past. IDF has the focus for now on destroying Hamas and dealing with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon.

History shows that Israel as the US can sufficiently deal with multiple fronts. The Middle East conflict currently is not having an affect on the war in Ukraine. The US has resources enough to deal with the situation. Both Iraq and Syria lack an army that can make a difference in a confrontation.

Countries neighbouring Israel will happily stay away provoking Israel to a war. Houthis are no different to Hamas or Hezbollah. The situation here is that Yemen/Houthi facing problems of a different order. Allied forces intervened. The problems for Yemen/Houthi are bigger than for other Iranian proxies. Allied strikes on Yemen/Houthi are weekly if not daily inflicting serious damage. Yemen/Houthi’s won’t sustain this in the long run. Allied/US assets are restricted to supply a small contingency their Air Force and Navy.

Venezuela-Guyana

An interesting one to follow. It shouldn’t come to any one as surprise that this is also a dictator run initiative. President Maduro of Venezuela initiating it. Although this conflict is also one with a history, Maduro has 2 reasons to start it. His presence as dictator reaches an end, new elections are on the way.

To cling to power, he happily reopens this dispute. As Russia is Venezuela’s most important ally in trading and military country in Latin America, Maduro happily responds to Russian requests to cause disturbance that will lead to American attention. Did it? To a certain extent.

The dispute focusses on a region in Guyana called Essequibo. This region is controlled by Guyana since 1899. And since Guyana independence since 1966. Recent serious oil and gas finds is what Maduro uses to threaten to start a “special operation”. The US engaged in Guyana-US flight drills as an immediate response. Neighbouring Brazil reacted by mobilizing forces helping Guyana.

One would call it another regional conflict. Venezuelan army ranks 57th globally. A decaying Russian army won’t be of any direct help. Russia, as we know, has bigger issues at hand. At best Maduro will have to deal with an Allied intervention and far from a war. Venezuela’s military is hardly equipped to deal with a confrontation. We’ve seen Russian war toys in action, and Venezuela has only these toys. Not a bright prospect in a confrontation. At face value this is only a distraction that won’t need a huge amount of assets. Or moving of those.

Kosovo conflict

Also, here we need to understand the background and the dissolvement in 1990-1992 of the Republic Yugoslavia commonly known as SFRY, Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, split up into 7 different countries.

The 20th Century: First partitioned in 1913 between Serbia and Montenegro, Kosovo was then incorporated into the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes (later named Yugoslavia) after World War I. During World War II, parts of Kosovo were absorbed into Italia-occupied Albania.

The 2008 Kosovo declaration of independence, which proclaimed the Republic of Kosovo to be a state independent from Serbia, was adopted at a meeting held on 17 February 2008. I will skip the NATO interventions subject. What we see and face are border disputes and differences in Law between the 2 countries. Serbia is well known for its provocations towards Kosovo. Kosovo from its side reacts, leading to local conflicts.

Does it distract the US in relation to the war in Ukraine? I would say hardly. Serbs do have close ties with Russia and China, and it shows. Serbia wishes to become EU member. The current border skirmishes are not well received by the EU. Part of this is why the EU delays Serbian membership to the EU. Serbia’s hunger for the EU market is decisive here. The current disputes will ease off over time.

African regional conflicts

There are plenty of them. Countries in Africa have had self-governance for over 60 years. And look what a mess there is. All over Africa corruption is wide spread. One of Africa’s problems is that it is not likely that in the foreseeable future, the US needs to send assets to Africa.

Over 60 years the west has supported Africa with trillions of dollars of aid and funds. Few of the African nations have a significant army. The current narrative in Africa is that the west is the bad guy as the West stopped sending money and aid. Many African countries shout BRICS (Take Russia out of the equation), now trying to get money from the IMF and World bank developing their industries, while the West is not providing it.

Why should the West pay for China and other countries to create a trade barrier against the West? China can’t provide such funding and the floated BRICS bank either. BRICS countries have a commonality: all of them are bankrupt as well as currencies that are not interchangeable in the world market. We’ve seen the result of African leaders wearing down the Kremlin carpet begging for money. Licking Putin’s shoes didn’t bring any money. Not a surprise. Even African leaders know the Ruble has dropped 50% in value. And Russia having a dwarf economy and can’t provide military aid on scale. On short term the US is not militarily bothered sending assets or attention.

In conclusion

The world acts against dictators and autocrats, and atrocities of Islam. We’ve seen Europe releasing 50 billion Euro in aid to Ukraine. After a slow start Europe is now producing artillery ammo and weapons on an impacting scale. While this article is being written, the US is debating a $60 billion military aid package.

Ukraine is supported by 53 allied nations. The risk here is 1 big player (the US) might drop out. Then there are 52 nations that support Ukraine militarily. The US is not alone providing war planes and rockets and other weapons and ammo. If the US steps out, it will be the nation that suffers the most. And not only economically. If the US abandons NATO, it will be slowly economically isolated, and no longer trade partner of the EU.

52 allied nations? I don’t see that support for the Kremlin to be honest. Neither the capability of production ammo and weapons that 52 nations can provide. I don’t think that US politics will bring itself in harm's way and the support to Ukraine remains firm. I wish that allied nations clearly define objectives in the Ukraine war.

There is one thing I would like to remark. It has been sometime that in discussions I remarked that if there is an intervention in Ukraine? It will be executed by allied nations. I exclude the US sending boots. It might very well be that NATO infrastructures are used to co-ordinate an intervention. The world will not stand by having the kremlinturd over run Ukraine. And with half of its army or more destroyed already, Russia is not likely to be in that position. Before the kremlinturd engages in voting corruption he will try to take the Donbass. I think history will show once more Putin’s failure.

Audaces fortuna iuvat – Fortune favours the bold

Mad Mango