Pace of Russian offensive in Ukraine has increased, but remains slow

In recent weeks, the pace of the Russian offensive has increased. However, they remain slow and consistent with a positional war.

This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts write that Western publications comparing the pace of the Russian offensive in September 2024 with the offensives at the beginning of the war are misleading.

The ISW estimates that in March 2024, the Russians advanced at the front at an average rate of 1,265 square kilometers per day. This is about 90 times more than the 14 square kilometers per day that the institute estimates Russian troops were seizing in September 2024.

Thus, Russia's rapid advance deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary seizure of large parts of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, characterized the first month of the full-scale Russian invasion. In turn, the later offensives of the occupiers were characterized by small-scale, localized and tactical offensives.

According to the report, Russian troops have recently made gains in eastern Ukraine, but comparing these “achievements” to Russia's initial penetration deep into our country at the beginning of the war is misleading about these recent successes.

In particular, as of October 1, 2024, the Russians captured the village of Vuhledar, continued to advance north and northwest of Vuhledar, and made significant tactical gains in the area of Selidovo (southeast of Pokrovsk) over the past week. While these gains are tactically significant, they do not reflect an overall increase in the pace of Russian offensives along the entire front line, most of which remains relatively stagnant. In addition, Russia's latest achievements do not exceed the pace of the Russian offensive in the first phase of the war by two orders of magnitude.

Author - Dmitriy Levchenko, 30/10/2024