Russia prepares an offensive in Donetsk region, US aid may disrupt it

Russian troops are planning a broad penetration of Ukrainian positions northwest of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. However, their efforts may be limited by the provision of military assistance to Ukraine by the United States and Western countries.

This is reported with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report notes that the Russians have concentrated a division-sized force on the Berdychi-Novokalynove line northwest of Avdiivka, consisting mainly of four brigades of the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.

It is noted that all these plans are aimed at supporting Russia's operational-level goal, which is to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region through the city of Pokrovsk.

At the same time, ISW notes, Russian troops do not have enough time to prepare for a wider breakthrough, as the arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon be replenished with military aid from Europe and the United States if the Senate passes the bill on additional appropriations.

Analysts recalled that EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on April 22 that the first supplies of artillery ammunition, initiated by the Czech Republic, would arrive in Ukraine by the end of May or early June.

"Ukraine’s ability to even the ratio of artillery fires in comparison to Russian forces on the battlefield will be essential to Ukraine’s ability to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow the rate of ongoing Russian advances in areas of the front such as the Avdiivka direction," the report says.

Given the developments, the Institute of War Studies predicts that in the coming weeks, Russian troops will continue to win tactical victories along the Berdychi-Novokalynove line and other areas of the theater, awaiting the arrival of Western aid.

"The currently closing window of low Ukrainian resources will likely inhibit Russian forces from being able to translate tactical advances into operationally significant gains for the most part, though some are possible; and Ukraine’s receipt of Western aid will likely position Ukrainian forces to receive the upcoming offensives for which Russian forces are preparing," the ISW report says.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 23/04/2024