Russia is not capable of a large-scale offensive

The Russian military command has been preparing for an offensive operation in the summer of 2024 for several months and has accumulated operational reserves and resources for its implementation. However, in recent months of exhausting hostilities, these resources have been significantly reduced.

This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that in May 2024, Russian troops aimed to create a new operational grouping of troops with unused operational reserves of up to 70 thousand people. This grouping was supposed to carry out an offensive operation in the north of Kharkiv region, as well as create operational reserves for the Central Group's offensive on Pokrovsk this summer.

However, Russian troops likely spent a significant portion of these reserves on the stalled offensive in northern Kharkiv region, the increased pace of the offensive in the Pokrovsk sector and western Donetsk region, and the response to the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk region.

ISW analysts note that the Russians also continue to suffer losses of heavy armored vehicles during large unsuccessful mechanized assaults along the entire front line, especially in the western part of Donetsk region. Russian forces have likely accumulated a large number of vehicles for such mechanized assaults. However, the significant medium- and long-term limitations of Russia's armored vehicle stockpile will become more apparent as casualties mount and may force the Russian military command to rethink the benefits of continuing such intense mechanized activity in Ukraine.

The report also notes that continued heavy losses of Russian troops in the Donetsk region and further redeployment of Russian troops to the Kursk region will weaken Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations in northeastern and eastern Ukraine. However, the Institute's analysts believe that it is more likely that Russian troops will continue to reduce their offensive activity in less priority areas of the frontline rather than doing so evenly along the entire front line

“The current Russian offensive in the summer of 2024 is likely to culminate in the coming weeks and months. However, Russian troops may nevertheless continue to conduct offensive operations at a much slower pace throughout Ukraine. In this way, they hope that consistent offensive pressure will not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to accumulate the manpower and resources necessary to contest the initiative throughout the entire theater,” the ISW report says.

Author - Dmitriy Levchenko, 04/10/2024