US aid will give Ukraine breathing room, but not enough for offensive

The United States' assistance of more than $60 billion, contributing to effective defense, will give the Ukrainian military a much-needed respite but is unlikely to lead to a break in the course of the war without additional resources.

This was reported by Bloomberg.

Much will depend on how quickly the US aid reaches the front line. During the six months of the package's delay in Congress, the Ukrainian army has faced an acute shortage of ammunition and manpower, which is being exploited by the Russian occupiers.

According to Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, the aid will give the Ukrainian army a break, an opportunity to slow down the Russian advance, conduct "effective defense" and minimize losses. But for its own advancement, Ukraine needs additional assistance, which in the case of the United States is a difficult prospect due to the resistance of Republicans in Congress.

"The question is whether there will be aid and in what volume in 2025 and beyond — as Putin’s strategy is to wait it out," he said.

According to the newspaper's sources, Germany will continue to put pressure on European allies, including France and Italy, this week to supply air defense systems and components to Ukraine.

According to analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War, even if the US military equipment is delivered quickly, due to difficulties with transportation logistics, the aid is likely to "not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks".

"The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new US aid," the analysts said.

According to media reports, the first batch of US military aid may be delivered to Ukraine in a few days after the bill is signed by the US president, if it is passed by the Senate. It is likely to include ammunition for air defense and artillery systems.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 22/04/2024