Harris or Trump: How will the US election results affect Ukraine?

The US election will take place today, November 5, 2024. Whoever becomes president will determine whether military support for Ukraine will continue or whether the main partner will insist on negotiating with the Kremlin to the detriment of Ukraine's interests.

Read more about what to expect from the arrival of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in the White House, whether the US “Ukrainian policy” will change, and when it might happen in the RBC-Ukraine article.

Harris' position and what her victory will bring to Ukraine

Kamala Harris promises Ukraine strong support in the fight against the Russian invasion and criticizes Vladimir Putin. At the Munich Security Conference in February, she condemned the delay of military aid from Congress and said that this situation would be a gift to the aggressor.

"History proves that when we do not react, when an aggressor invades its neighbor with impunity, it will continue to move on. And in Putin's case, this means that the whole of Europe will be under threat,” she said.

At the first Peace Summit in Switzerland, Vice President Harris represented the United States. Back then, she emphasized the need to punish the aggressor. Otherwise, she said, it would encourage other aggressors and lead to new wars.

At a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September, she emphasized that no questions about the war could be resolved without Ukraine's participation. She also said that some in the United States are trying to persuade Ukraine to make territorial concessions, obviously referring to Donald Trump.

“These proposals sound similar to Putin's proposals. But these are not offers of peace - they are offers of surrender. This is dangerous and unacceptable,” Harris said, adding that Putin could quickly end the war by withdrawing his troops.

In general, she clearly articulated her desire to see Russia defeated and promised to continue Joe Biden's policy of assisting Ukraine.

And these are rational expectations, since Harris is still part of the current administration, explains Vladyslav Faraponov, head of the Institute of American Studies and analyst at Internews Ukraine.

“But to confidently state this, there is a lack of specifics from outside the administration. And from those who may occupy key positions in her administration. Many in Washington are now paying attention to this. It's one thing to know who will become president, another to know who will become an advisor and so on,” he told RBC-Ukraine.

But Kamala Harris is not as simple as it seems. She is more predictable, more institutional (ready to work within the framework of established contacts), but the lack of a clear foreign policy strategy may be a problem, says Oleksandr Kraev, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”.

“All this can lead to some passivity, even more cautious foreign policy. In the case of Ukraine, this is just as bad as Trump's chaotic behavior. Obviously, the US will continue to support Ukraine under this administration. But will we see a really decisive position, new decisions and qualitatively new support? There are questions,” he said.

Trump's position and what will happen if he becomes president

Donald Trump is questioning the need to help Ukraine. He says that Europe should bear the brunt of the burden. He has also repeatedly avoided answering the question of whether he wants Ukraine to win. But he has said that if elected, he would end the war quickly - even before his inauguration in January 2025.

In April, Trump said that he was open to helping Ukraine on credit, similar to the lend-lease program that the United States launched during World War II for its allies. As for how he would try to end the war, he said little.

Perhaps he will try to push Putin to negotiate, and if he does not agree, he will increase support for Ukraine. But on the other hand, he is also ready to put pressure on Zelenskyy. "I would tell Zelenskyy that we need to make a deal. I would tell Putin that if he doesn't make a deal, we will give (Ukraine - ed.) a lot, more than they have ever received. I will make a deal in one day,” Trump emphasized back in the summer of 2023.

At a September rally in North Carolina, he criticized Zelenskyy. According to him, he allegedly refused a deal that would have prevented the destruction of Ukraine. “There was no deal that was not better than the current situation. Ukraine is destroyed and cannot be restored,” the Republican candidate said.

He calls the Ukrainian leader “the best trader on Earth” because every time he leaves the United States with tens of billions of dollars. He also promises to get America out of the war and end it quickly with phone calls.

One of the ways he sees to do this is to reduce energy prices. In his view, if oil prices drop to $40 a barrel, it will dramatically reduce the flow of petrodollars and hit Putin's ability to fight.

Citing Trump's advisors, the US media write that his “fair deal” could be a freeze on the war with the creation of autonomous regions on both sides of the demilitarized zone. In addition, Ukraine will be persuaded to give up its NATO membership, to rethink the Minsk agreements of the past years, and to wait until Putin is gone.

It is hard to say whether his policy will be such. First, he is capable of unpredictable things. Secondly, if he becomes president, he will have powers that can untie his hands in terms of what can be done to strengthen Ukraine, Faraponov says.

"But we still haven't heard the main thing from him. Is he ready to put pressure on Putin? And if he is, to what extent and at what expense,” the source said.

Author - Dmitriy Levchenko, 05/11/2024