Putin believes he will win the war by dragging out hostilities

According to the ISW, any efforts to persuade Ukraine to negotiate prematurely with Russia will only weaken Kyiv and encourage further Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond.

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he can win a war of attrition if he drags out the military operations in Ukraine indefinitely. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for July 2, 2024.

"Putin likely believes that Russia can drag out the war indefinitely and win a war of attrition if it can ensure that Ukraine is denied strong international support," the report says.

According to the analysts, Russia's slow but steady victories on the battlefield since late 2023 reinforce this assessment and encourage him to avoid any real ceasefire that would end the war.

"Freezing the current demarcation line in Ukraine would provide Russia with operationally and strategically important Ukrainian territory from which to launch a new aggression, with an experienced army and a restored defense industrial base," the ISW noted.

In addition, the Kremlin is conducting an intensified information campaign aimed at pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia on Russia's terms.

"Any Russian, Western, or other efforts to push Ukraine into premature negotiations with Russia will only weaken Ukraine and encourage further Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond," the analysts explained.

Author - Serhii Kolomiets, 03/07/2024