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Russia's influence on grain exports will decrease in the coming weeks

Sep 22, 2023

The U.S. State Department has listed the factors that it believes will cause Russia to have less leverage over Ukraine's grain exports via the Black Sea.

Source: Reuters with reference to James O'Brien, the head of the Office of Sanctions Coordination at the US State Department.

Details: According to him, more and more ships will be able to leave Ukrainian ports, and rising costs may force Moscow to reconsider its refusal to accept the grain deal.


"Ukraine already has several ships that have left the ports and remain in territorial waters," he said.

The second factor, in his opinion, is that Russian attacks on Ukrainian ships will have a negative impact on pricing, which will lead to higher tariffs for insurers, which will increase costs for Russia.

"Over the next few weeks, I think the factors that made Russia believe it would benefit from withdrawing from the (Black Sea Grain) initiative will change," he concluded.

The "grain deal", brokered by the UN and Turkey, collapsed after Russia unilaterally withdrew from it in July. Since then, Moscow has repeatedly attacked Ukraine's port infrastructure.

Author - Olena Madiak, 22/09/2023

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