How long will the war last: Fitch Ratings' forecast
Fitch Ratings does not rule out that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue into 2025. Ukraine's ratings reflect the still significant credit risk given the protracted nature of the war.
This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the Fitch report.
According to the agency's forecast, the continuation of the war will lead to a large budget deficit (projected at 17.5% of GDP in 2024 and 15.3% in 2025) and uncertainty of financing from 2025.
Fitch notes the impact on aid to Ukraine of the US election cycle, potential donor fatigue, residual risks associated with EU funding plans, and limited capacity of local banks to significantly increase purchases of government debt.
At the same time, international reserves reached $37.2 billion at the end of July, and Ukraine's robust policy mix and ongoing official support under the IMF's four-year, $15.6 billion Extended Fund Facility for 2023 reduce risks to macroeconomic and financial stability in the short term, the agency's analysts write.
“This further supports Ukraine's ability to meet new Eurobond obligations despite the obvious exceptional uncertainty associated with the war with Russia,” the report says.
Author - Dmitriy Levchenko, 06/09/2024
