This was reported by The New York Times (NYT), which analyzed more than 50 pages of documents that have been circulating on social media in recent days.
In total, analysts estimate that about 100 pages have been leaked. U.S. intelligence officials believe the documents are generally authentic, although at least one of them has corrected numbers, the NYT notes.
The documents give an idea not only of where the information is collected (among the sources are the General Staff; the GRU, or foreign intelligence of the Ministry of Defense; the Ministry itself; and the National Defense Management Center), but also how. For example, the CIA's daily intelligence summary indicates that electronic intelligence means were used to listen to conversations in the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The information received includes, in particular, daily warnings about the time of missile strikes and bombings carried out by Russian troops; this allowed the United States to warn Ukraine about the upcoming attacks. The documents also show how weak the Russian troops are, worn out by heavy fighting that has not yielded results. For example, the National Defense Management Center recognized in a February report the "decline in combat capability" of troops in eastern Ukraine.
According to documents, the US has eyes and ears everywhere in the structures of Russia's military command. One of the documents labeled "top secret" describes the plans of the General Staff to counter the tanks supplied to Ukraine by NATO countries. To destroy them, it is proposed to establish three firing zones depending on the distance. In addition, it is said that it is necessary to train soldiers to fight NATO tanks by telling them about their vulnerabilities. It is also proposed to pay a monetary reward for their destruction and the provision of video evidence.
Some intelligence reports contain information about the plans of the Russian military command and their analysis. Others provide precise information about the strikes being prepared. For example, in March, the Ministry of Defense discussed a missile attack on a number of facilities in Odesa and Mykolaiv; according to US intelligence, its purpose was to destroy a drone warehouse, air defense system, and kill Ukrainian soldiers. On March 24, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the destruction of a hangar with drones in Odesa region; on the same days, there were reports of shelling in Mykolaiv and other cities. It is unclear whether the Ukrainians took advantage of the US warning to avoid losses, the NYT notes.
The leaked documents also describe an information campaign that the GRU planned in Africa to "promote Russian foreign policy" and to turn public opinion against the United States. Another topic is how a Russian hacker shared screenshots with the FSB showing access to Canada's gas infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal adds.
Although the documents that have been made publicly available do not contain information about the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including the counteroffensive being prepared, they could harm Ukraine and its allies, the NYT cites former and current US military officials. Russia can use them to identify sources of information leakage and shut them down.
Author - Serhii Kolomiets, 11/04/2023