Ukrainian offensives create conditions for a broader counteroffensive

The Ukrainian military has been successful in continuing counteroffensive operations on a number of fronts. This is likely to create conditions for broader goals of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

This is the opinion of analysts at the Institute for the Study of War in a new report.

The Ukrainian military continued counteroffensive operations on at least three fronts and reportedly made progress on June 15.

According to Oleksandr Shtapun, spokesman for the AFU General Staff, the soldiers conducted successful offensives north and northwest of Bakhmut. The press center of the Tavria military group reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had advanced up to one kilometer in the western part of Donetsk region and were continuing to try to improve their tactical positions in the area of Vuhledar (30 km southwest of Donetsk).

Russian "milbloggers" claimed that Ukrainian forces had allegedly unsuccessfully attacked southwest and south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia region, and asserted that Ukrainian forces were increasing the pace of counteroffensives in the area due to improved weather conditions.

Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the AFU General Staff, said that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 3 km in the area of Mala Tokmachka in the western Zaporizhzhia region and up to 7 km in the area of Velyka Novosilka in the western Donetsk region and liberated 7 settlements in these areas since the start of counteroffensives.

However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on June 15 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not yet launched a counteroffensive "as such", but admitted that troops were conducting offensive operations.

This, the report notes, may indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet begun their main efforts.

ISW assesses that “ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations are likely setting conditions for wider Ukrainian counteroffensive objectives that are not immediately clear and therefore represent the initial phase of an ongoing counteroffensive”.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 16/06/2023