AFU may liberate most of the Kherson region in the coming weeks – ISW

U.S. military experts predict that Ukraine in the coming weeks may liberate the occupied western part of the Kherson region from the Russians.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

U.S. analysts suggest that the Russians are trying to carry out a more controlled withdrawal in the western part of the Kherson region to avoid the chaotic rout that characterized the collapse of Russian defense positions in the Kharkiv region in early September.

ISW points out that over the past few months the Russians have significantly reinforced their positions in the west of the Kherson region and moved airborne units and some units of the 1st Tank Army there.

“They appear to be performing significantly better than Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast. The Ukrainians destroyed a number of units of the 1st Guards Tank Army in Kharkiv Oblast, putting them to flight and capturing large amounts of high-quality equipment. The worse performance of professional Russian soldiers in Kharkiv Oblast compared with those in Kherson Oblast may be due to the thinner concentration of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast as well as the fact that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast appeared to surprise the Russian defenders, ” the review says.

At the same time, U.S. experts added that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region is progressing and the Russians are trying to stop it by retreating to more suitable positions for defense.

Continuous Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply routes across the Dnipro River have resulted in food and water shortages in occupied Kherson and weakened Russian artillery fire.

“Ukrainian forces remain likely to regain much if not all of western Kherson Oblast in the coming weeks if they continue to interdict Russian GLOCs and press their advance. Ukrainian gains may continue to be slow if the Russian troops can retain their coherence but could also accelerate significantly if Russian forces begin to break,” the ISW summarized.

Author – Anastasiya Glotova, 19/09/2022