The Russians are forming troops to attack Kharkiv

The Russian military is forming the Northern Group of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District to conduct operations in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction. The Russian army does not have sufficient forces to capture Kharkiv or Sumy, but any operations in the direction of these cities will divert the forces of the Armed Forces from other directions of the front.

This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The agency refers to the information of the Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, according to which Russian troops continue to transfer newly formed military units of the 44th Army Corps (AK) within the Leningrad Military District (LBO) to the Northern Army Group.

According to the analyst, as of May 3, the Russian military transferred the personnel and equipment of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AK, LVO) and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Northern Group of Forces. The Russians pretend that they are unloading troops and equipment at railway stations in isolated areas of the Kursk Region for redeployment to the Northern Group of Forces, in order to then march to the deployment sites in the Belgorod Region.

Mashovets noted that the units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment were initially redeployed to the Kursk railway station, and then moved further to the Belgorod region in order to, presumably, go to the concentration points near the Kharkiv region.

In addition, the analyst recalled that Russian troops recently intensified air, drone, and missile strikes on the northeastern border regions of Ukraine, such as the Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Mashovets repeated ISW's previously released assessment that Russia's Northern Group of Forces was unlikely to be able to conduct a successful offensive operation to capture Kharkiv and suggested that elements of the Russian 11th AK, 44th AK, and 6th AK (all LVO) may in the future try to carry out limited offensive actions or carry out cross-border raids on the territory of Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

"Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning about the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation to capture Kharkiv. However, the Russian military lacks the necessary forces to capture the city. At the same time, Russian offensive operations on Kharkiv and Sumy will distract and divert the Defense Forces from other, more important areas of the front," says the ISW report.

Author - Serhii Kolomiets, 06/05/2024