Capturing Vuhledar is unlikely to give Russians a special advantage

Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Vuhledar in Donetsk region. However, this is unlikely to give them any special operational advantage for further offensive operations in the western part of the region.

This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the Institute for War Studies.

The occupiers are also trying to attack the northeastern flank of Vuhledar through Vodyane and the southwestern flank through Prechystivka, probably trying to surround the Ukrainian group in Vuhledar and force it to withdraw.

Russian forces may be able to capture the entirety of Vuhledar, but how quickly or easily they can do so will likely depend in part on Ukrainian decision-making. If Ukrainian forces decide to defend Vuhledar, it may be difficult for the occupiers to fight for the settlement, which Ukraine has been fortifying for two years.

If the Russians do not occupy the settlement relatively quickly, the Russian maneuver along Vuhledar's flanks could also suffer due to the onset of autumn rains, ISW noted.

However, the potential capture of Vuhledar by Russia is unlikely to dramatically change the course of offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region, according to the Institute's analysts. They note that Vuhledar is not a particularly important logistical hub - Russian troops already control most of the main roads leading to Vuhledar.

Capturing the settlement would not immediately provide Russian forces with access to a new road, nor would it cut off Ukrainian forces from a road that is important for their logistical support. The potential capture of Vuhledar would also not necessarily provide Russian forces with a favorable position to launch further offensives in other parts of western Donetsk region, ISW noted.

Author - Dmitriy Levchenko, 25/09/2024