RF's offensive could pose a threat to the AFU due to lack of US aid

Russia is preparing for a major offensive in the early summer. If US military aid is not unblocked by then, an enemy counteroffensive will be a serious problem for the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

This is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that US security assistance is vital to the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defend themselves against current and future Russian offensives that will begin in late spring and summer this year.

The report recalled the statement of the Chief of the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (DIU), Kyrylo Budanov, that Ukrainian troops are preparing to repel the upcoming major Russian offensive, which is expected in late May or early June. And they reminded that, according to him, this offensive will be “catastrophically difficult” without Western military assistance.

The ISW also recalled the statement of Defense Minister Rustem Umerov that the current situation in eastern Ukraine is “tense” and that Russian troops are concentrating their efforts west of Bakhmut in the direction of Chasiv Yar. According to him, Ukrainian troops are successfully using modern equipment against the superior number of Russian personnel.

In addition, the Institute cited a statement by Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for the Ukrainian group Khortytsia, who said that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors could use only one to five artillery shells for every 10 artillery shells fired by Russian forces. At the same time, he clarified that Ukrainian artillery is more accurate than Russian artillery.

The report notes that the ability of the Defense Forces to repel the recent intensification of Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine has deteriorated due to a lack of material and technical resources and is likely to continue to deteriorate in the near future if the delay in providing military assistance from the United States continues.

"Russian troops are currently taking advantage of the shortage of Ukrainian material caused by the lack of US security assistance to achieve minor tactical successes. However, future Russian offensives could achieve more significant and threatening gains, especially west of Bakhmut, if the United States continues to delay assistance to Ukraine," the ISW report says.

Author - Serhii Kolomiets, 16/04/2024